PROJECTED BALANCES
Your current balance is only the starting point.
A checking account can look comfortable today and still be headed toward a low point after upcoming bills. Projection adds timing to the balance.
What belongs in a projection?
Start with the latest trustworthy balance, then apply transactions that occur after that balance snapshot: pending purchases, planned income, scheduled bills, and both sides of transfers. Already-recorded transactions should not be counted again as future scheduled activity.
Why the low point matters
The ending balance can hide a problem in the middle. If a large bill clears before the next paycheck, the minimum projected balance may be more useful than the month-end balance for deciding whether new spending is safe.
Avoid double counting
A scheduled bill that becomes a ledger transaction should move from “future obligation” to “recorded transaction,” not exist in both calculations. Transfers also need independent treatment on the source and destination accounts.